Week 4 – Rams @ 49ers Matchup

Sunday the 0-3 St. Louis Rams will take on the first place 2-1 San Francisco 49er at 3:15PM CST. The media and experts have these two teams miles apart. Further evidence of this is the 10 point spread in Vegas. This is a 49ers team that is lucky to score 20 points in a game and they are a 10 point favorite. So pencil the Rams in for another 10 point outburst today.

So how did we get here? We know the Rams, 13 straight losses, 5 wins in their last 35 games, awful drafting, etc. However you don't have to look far to find what could have been our twin. The 49ers were 12-20 during the 2007, 2008 NFL season. They had a lack of talent and depth, and a coach in Mike Nolan who could not get the team going, not unlike Scott Linehan in St. Louis. So the 49ers hired Mike Singletary during the 2008 season and they have a 7-5 record with him under the helm. same team different attitude. In addition the 49ers have drafted much better than the Rams. Top draft picks are an obvious issue for the Rams. Their last 4 number 1's are Tye Hill (GONE), Adam Carriker (IR), Chris Long (2nd teamer now?), and Jason Smith (Injured). The Rams have received absolutely NO impact from these players. With Chris Long now seeing spot duty, and Jason Smith playing right tackle you could say we wasted all four selections. The 49ers on the other hand drafted Michael Crabtree, Kentwan Balmer, Patrick Willis. Joe Staley, Vernon Davis, & Manny Lawson in the first round over the past four years. These players are 5 of their 22 starters and they would be 6 for 6 if Michael Crabtree had decided to sign his contract.

So what do we see happening on Sunday? Well these teams are still very similar on the offensive side of the ball, so similar that each team is averaging 276 yards per game. Neither teams scares anyone with their passing game. Both teams try to play it close to the best with the power running game of Frank Gore and Steven Jackson. The major difference is the 49ers defense has helped their team score. The 49ers are 10th in scoring even though they are 28th in yardage. The 49ers will be without Frank Gore today, and are coming off a game that they were 0-11 on third down conversions. The Rams have the worst receiving group I have ever seen take the field in the NFL. The 49ers are not far behind. Isaac Bruce is the 49ers receiver with 100 yards receiving through 3 games.

Defense, here is the difference in this game. The 49ers are aggressive and smash mouth since Mike Singletary took over. Patrick Willis is a poor man's Ray Lewis. The 49ers play a 3-4 and have an outstanding group of linebackers in Parys Haralson, Manny Lawson, Takeo Spikes & Patrick Willis. These linebackers come down hill and will be after Steven Jackson all day. They 49ers will stack the box and they will not let Steven Jackson beat them. With one of the best cornerbacks in the game in Nate Clements along with Dre' Bly, Shawntae Spencer, and Mike Lewis. They are probably laughing during breakfast right now thinking of the Rams receivers.

With Frank Gore out and rookie Glenn Coffee averaging 1.8 yards per carry in, this should be another game that the Rams should stay in. This game should be similar to the Rams/Redskins battle. The difference has to be the defense. The Rams have a hard time pressuring the QB, and if they can not provide the Rams offense with good field position points will be hard to come by. I think the 49ers will look like 11 swarming bees today and really hand it to the Rams. Kyle Boller is going to be running for his life today.

Prediction 49ers over the Rams 23-10

St. Louis Rams Season Preview

Offense - Change is the word for the Rams offense. New head coach Steve Spagnuolo is defensive minded. The Rams also brought in Pat Shurmur who runs a West Coast offense, so expect a lot of quick dink and dunk passes from Marc Bulger, and a heavy dose of Steven Jackson. I expect Jackson to get 25 touches every week, hopefully he can take the punishment. The Rams Will go with Samkon Gado and Kenneth Darby to back up Jackson. At receiver Torry Holt is gone and Donnie Avery is the #1. Avery has more receptions (53) in the NFL than any other receiver on the Rams roster. Their lack of experience is sure to show. Expect every team to key on Jackson and put 8 in the box. The Rams did draft OT Jason Smith from Baylor and picked up massive Center Jason Brown as a free agent to help restore the offensive line. The biggest question will be the leadership and ability for Marc Bulger to make positive plays and stay away from turnovers and sacks.

Defense - The Rams have been in the bottom 5 in points allowed the previous four years! It is hard to win many games that way. Steve Spagnuolo is going to look to build the defense around youngsters Chris Long and James Laurinaitis. The Rams must have a much better defense against the rush and generate a much better pass rush. The Rams are very young at defensive tackle, in addition Adam Carriker is out for the year with an injury. Spagnuolo has chosen to go very young with the roster. The Rams have chosen to release Tye Hill and Chris Draft and will start Jonathan Wade and David Vabora. The cornerbacks are super inexperienced with Ron Bartell leading the group with only four years of service. The lack of quality depth at cornerback will show against teams like Green Bay, Indy, and Arizona.

Special Teams - It does not get any better than Josh Brown and Donnie Jones. Some of the Rams best drives will be to play it safe get a few yards and let Donnie boot it 50 yards down field to help out the defense. The kick returns will be handled by Derek Stanley and Kenneth Darby, not much of a threat. With the new rule of only two players allowed on the kickoff wedge I am not expecting much on kickoff returns. We need the Rams to improve on kick coverage as well. Players like Chamberlain, Vobara and Culberson will be expected to make a lot of tackles.

Schedule - After starting the last 2 years 0-4 and 0-8 I am very worried about the Rams first 7 games on this years schedule. There is a good chance the Rams will get off to a slow start again. The Rams will play four 2008 playoff teams in 2009. The records of the Rams 2009 opponents were 119-137 in 2008. That is a winning percentage of only .464. The Rams have very hard games against the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts in 09. If you throw out those two games Rams opponents were 94-130 for a .419 winning percentage. The Rams play in the worst division in football and need to find a way to start winning division games again.

Our Thoughts - The offense will have a very hard time moving the ball and putting up points. They have the least experienced group of receivers in the NFL. They have a QB that has had two awful years in a row, and comes into the season with a broken pinkie. Marc needs to stand in the pocket and make good decisions. Steven Jackson will have every defense focused on stopping him. The defense is very young and I can't believe they are going into the season with this group of 5 cornerbacks. I expect them to get burnt early and often at the beginning of the season. James Laurinaitis is a great anchor to build around. I believe you will see the Rams manufacture a better pass rush with more blitzing and they will also swarm to the ball in an attempt to create a lot of turnovers. Overall the squad is in rebuilding mode and is just too young and inexperienced to expect much this year. The lack of star power and depth will hurt the Rams as well. The bottom line is going into a season with an offensive line that has never played a game together is just not good in the NFL. They have turned the corner with a new front office and head coach but they are still a few players away.

Prediction - (3 - 13) Early season schedule is way to hard