Sunday, December 20, 2009

Houston Texans @ St. Louis Rams Matchup

Rams. The high flying Houston Texans (6-7) are coming off their best performance of the season a 34-7 victory against the Seattle Seahawks. Those are the same Seahawks that have beaten the St. Louis Rams 10 straight times and outscored the Rams 55-17 this season.

At 6-7 Houston has an outside chance of finishing 9-7 and making the playoffs. Last week in their victory both sides of the ball were explosive. The offense rolled up 365 yards by halftime behind Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. Andre Johnson is arguably the best WR in the game. Through 13 games he has 81 receptions for 1237 yards and 8 TDs. Schaub could be the best second tier QB in the NFL. He is posting great numbers this year, 324 of 473 for 3814 yards a 68.5 completion percentage and a QB rating of 98.2. On the ground the trio of Steve Slaton, Ryan Moats and Chris Brown have been disappointing but have combined for 10 rushing TDs. Slaton is also dangerous on of the backfield with 44 receptions. Look for the Texans to match him up against the slow Rams outside linebackers.

On defense the Texans are middle of the pack but are coming off their best game of the season last week against Seattle. Houston had an amazing 15 tackles for loss in their game last week. Look for more of the same this week as Mario Williams and company will try to break through the Rams patchwork offensive line to attack Steven Jackson and Keith Null. As great as we think James Laurinaitis has played with his 104 tackles, don't overlook the Texans first round draft choice Brian Cushing who has 112 tackles and 2.5 sacks. I thought last year Cushing could be the best pro of all of the USC linebackers that came out. With the Rams starting O-line of Barron, Greco, Brown, Setterstrom and Goldberg look for the Texans front 7 to manhandle the Rams. As if you want to see another piece of the puzzle the Rams are missing check out Bernard Pollard today. Pollard is the Texans Strong Safety who they picked up after the Chiefs threw him away. Pollard is the kind of hammer the Rams need. If Null hangs out Gibson or Avery today look for Pollard to lay a missile shot on them.

What can you say about the St. Louis Rams offense? The Rams are last in scoring and lately have had trouble getting to 200 yards of offense in a game. With injuries to the O-line, sickness among many of their starters, and Keith Null possibly starting don't look for things to get any better today. If Steven Jackson can not go because of his back injury and sickness the Rams will turn to Gado and Darby. If that happens the Rams may easily be shutout today. Even with Jackson in the game the Rams have score 10 or less points in seven of their thirteen games. On defense today I have no idea what the Rams can do. The front four is going to have to create a lot of pressure on Schaub or this one will be over early. At Free Safety the Rams are starting David Roach and at Right Cornerback Quincy Butler. The Rams do not move Ron Bartell around so Andre Johnson will be able to freely move to create the matchups they are looking for. I am sure Johnson is not afraid of the Bartell matchup but you have to think they will test and burn Quincy Butler all day. The Rams are several pieces short of having a decent defense and once you add the injury issue to that they are even worse. Only the Detroit Lions have allowed more points than the Rams this year.

Overall it is a good day to go see a team that the Rams rarely play. In addition you can see some great players like Johnson, Schaub, Williams, and Cushing. I plan the spend the day in the Bud Light Party Zone wondering why the Rams have not put pieces like this together? Dez Bryant and Colt McCoy, anyone?

Prediction Houston Texans 34 - St. Louis Rams 3

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Sunday, November 22, 2009

St. Louis Rams Arizona Cardinals Matchup

For the second straight week the St. Louis Rams face a high-powered NFL offense as Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals come to town. This is another awful matchup for the St. Louis Rams. On paper it looks like another long day for the St. Louis Rams down at the Edward Jones Dome.

Whenever the Rams play a team that can light up the scoreboard I do not like the matchup. Even though the Rams played well last week let's not forget that they actually lost. The Rams allowed 28 points and 420 total yards to the New Orleans Saints. Fans may think that is progress and maybe it is but these Rams are not going to win a single game when they allow 28 points, it's just not going to happen. The Saints gashed the Rams for 200+ yards rushing and they don't really have a #1 RB. The Rams also allowed 60% third down conversions, a trend that continues.

On to this week where matchups on both sides of the ball are frightening. The Arizona Cardinals score 25+ points per game and have been hot of late winning 5 of their last 6 games and they are undefeated on the road. Now with a healthy Anquan Boldin the Cardinals feature the best trio of wide receivers in the game and the Rams are very think and inexperienced at cornerback. The Rams will have no answer for Larry Fitzgerald who continues to be the best wide receiver in the NFL. The Rams need to pressure Kurt Warner into mistakes, and since they are 29th in sacks they will need to come of with some plays to get to him. In addition to these facts the Cardinals are starting to work Beanie Wells into their running game and he has been running hard. If they can supplement their passing game with any rushing at all they will put up 30+ points today.

When the Rams have the ball they will once again have to rely on Steven Jackson for production. The Rams lack of downfield passing makes them a sitting duck week after week. The Cardinals are 30th in pass defense but that is not the Rams or Marc Bulger's strength. The Cardinals play down hill all of the time and are super aggressive. Look for them to play 10 players within 10 yards and sometimes 5 yards of the line of scrimmage to shutdown Jackson. The Cardinals are 5th in sacks and will get pressure on Bulger throughout the game. Darnell Dockett is a beast and they will have to block him with Jacob Bell. Bell has no shot at blocking Dockett, the Rams need to play a fullback more often today. Adrian Wilson who usually eats the Rams alive only has half a sack on the season, look out for him today. Steven Jackson will have to do a great job in blitz pickup today. The Cardinals will lock down on Donnie Avery and Brandon Gibson with tight man to man coverage from Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie & Bryant McFadden. Over the top they will have Adrian Wilson and Antrel Rolle both will be looking to shut down Steven Jackson. You can get big plays against the Cardinals but they will keep coming.

The St. Louis Rams just do not have the type of offense to hang with Arizona Cardinals. The Rams will have to be at least +3 in turnover differential to hang in this one. I liked how hard they played last week but let's face it you only get 16 chances to win you should play hard 16 times. This whole thing is a complete mismatch.

Prediction Arizona Cardinals 30 - St. Louis Rams 10

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